NEW: Obama up in FL in 2nd poll, crusing in NH, tied in OH

by LeftistAddiction, Wed Jun 18, 2008 at 06:06:10 PM EST

A new wave of polls adds to the already very long list of polls released today:
  • A new ARG poll finds him ahead by 5% in Florida (this is the second poll with this result today and Obama had never led in a FL poll before).
  • Obama is also cruising in New Hampshire.
  • But Rasmussen finds a tie in OH (Quinnipiac and PPP had found Obama ahead by 6-11 over the past two days).

Full roundup on Campaign Diaries.

The Florida poll is great news for Obama as they put to rest speculation that McCain has already put this state away. Republicans might still have an edge in the state (after all the party survived 2006 pretty well here, cruising to gubernatorial victory in an open seat) but McCain will definitely have to play defense in a state he really cannot afford to lose. As an added bonus, ARG has polled the Senate race in NH and confirmed what we already knew: Shaheen is favored to beat Senator Sununu.


Tags: Ohio, New Hampshire, Florida (all tags)

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Re: NEW: Obama up in FL in 2nd poll, crusing in NH (none / 0)

Statistical tie in Rasmussen, but McCain is up by 1, 44-43.  

That's a "back to reality" moment after the one with the 11-point edge.


Saxby Chambliss
by bosdcla14 on Wed Jun 18, 2008 at 06:14:48 PM EST

Re: NEW: Obama up in FL in 2nd poll, crusing in NH (2.00 / 1)

True, but I think that it is more likely it is somewhere in the middle...perchance Obama+6 like the Quinnipiac poll.


by sulthernao on Wed Jun 18, 2008 at 06:25:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: NEW: Obama up in FL in 2nd poll, crusing in NH (none / 0)

Never forget that Rasmussen is a Republican pollster.  Rasmussen also maintains the closest electoral count:

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_c ontent/politics/election_20082/2008_pres idential_election/election_2008_electora l_college_update

of all the outfits maintaining an EV score.  It's all done for a reason.  If Rasmussen has Obama tied in OH or anywhere else, then to me it means that Obama is actually ahead. Rasmussen uses very conservative cross-tabs for Obama in the rust-belt states (PA,OH etc)


by rapcetera on Wed Jun 18, 2008 at 07:51:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: NEW: Obama up in FL in 2nd poll, crusing in NH (none / 0)

Rasmussen also nailed 2004, and they were pretty goo in the primary.


The primaries are over!
Focus on McCain
by really not a troll on Wed Jun 18, 2008 at 08:07:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: NEW: Obama up in FL in 2nd poll, crusing in NH (none / 0)

Damn, did the Obama campaign pay off the pollsters today? (jk)

Seriously, the news is good across the board:D


by animated on Wed Jun 18, 2008 at 06:15:53 PM EST

Re: NEW: Obama up in FL in 2nd poll, (none / 0)

As far as Republicans go, FL Governor Crist is by far on the "lesser of evils" side of things, and his Dem opponent was a grade A moron.


John McCain wants to stay in Iraq.
by ihaveseenenough on Wed Jun 18, 2008 at 06:16:42 PM EST

Re: NEW: Obama up in FL in 2nd poll, (none / 0)

Keep in mind that his popularity was before the governor decided he'd support oil rigs off the coast. That will piss a TON of people off. Ones that aren't already pissed by his plans to slash funding for government services to give back a small amount of property tax.


"Hey, check it out. You just had yourself a glue OD. So you're learning another lesson. Don't do too much glue, or your night sucks."
by vcalzone on Wed Jun 18, 2008 at 06:20:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: NEW: Obama up in FL in 2nd poll, (none / 0)

Floridians (I am a former one) are NOT going to take kindly to the images of oil rigs sitting off the shore.  I agree 100%- Crist just shot himself in the foot.


John McCain wants to stay in Iraq.
by ihaveseenenough on Wed Jun 18, 2008 at 06:42:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: NEW: Obama up in FL in 2nd poll, (none / 0)

Ya wanna bet that if it becomes apparent he won't get the VP slot, he changes his tune?


"Hey, check it out. You just had yourself a glue OD. So you're learning another lesson. Don't do too much glue, or your night sucks."
by vcalzone on Wed Jun 18, 2008 at 06:56:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: NEW: Obama up in FL in 2nd poll, (none / 0)

Dude- mark my words.  There is no WAY Crist gets the VP slot, solely because he is, in fact, incredibly incredibly gay.  I wish I could say McCain and the GOP was progressive enough to nominate a gay man as VP, and would welcome it, but I gotta tell you- don't see it.


John McCain wants to stay in Iraq.
by ihaveseenenough on Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 03:11:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Wow. (none / 0)

I was convinced that Florida was a lost cause. Now I'm thinking it might not be. If we start here and then factor in the oil drilling situation, I think we may see a huge, huge loss for the Republicans.


"Hey, check it out. You just had yourself a glue OD. So you're learning another lesson. Don't do too much glue, or your night sucks."
by vcalzone on Wed Jun 18, 2008 at 06:18:07 PM EST

Unfortunately ARG is terrible (none / 0)

ARG is a terrible pollster but still, its not bad news.  I just won't put much stock in it.

Id like to see the Rasmussen crosstabs.  Its a bit odd that they've had zero movement in the last month in OH when every other pollster has seen strong movement to Obama in Ohio (and most other places).  There isn't even any bump from the nomination.


McCain = Iraq. John McCain = overturn Roe.
by PantsB on Wed Jun 18, 2008 at 10:24:50 PM EST


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