"Hillary as his Running Mate would be great!"

Indian River
i've moved from canvassing in orange county (florida) over to brevard county.  to be more specific, i was in merritt island.  brevard county -- especially northern and central brevard (where merritt island and cocoa beach are located) -- is staring down the barrel of an economic bazoka.  in 2011, kennedy space center (the largest employer in the county) is scheduled to lay off a significant number of jobs as nasa attempts to transition to another form of human space vehicle.  nor has it helped that the u.s. government has gotten out of private satellite launching business (another failure of the privatization fade).  local democrats have worried that barack's positions on u.s. space policy could mean further job cuts in brevard's major employer because of earlier wording in his education plan (PDF).

another reason that local democrats worry about brevard county is that, besides being the home of the space center, it is also the home of two air force bases, a naval facility and a coast guard station.  a large number of military retirees choose to settle in the area, which has long sought a veteran's hospital, and there are more people here who've had a tour of duty in the military.  like other surfer's in the area, i've taught my share of young airmen how to surf the small but quick waves around patrick air force base.  so there's a little apprehension about what kind of reaction we'd receive knocking on doors here.

i can put it in four words: much better than expected.  as i've noted before, this is the county where hillary's 50.58% in the january primary got her 31,709 votes while mccain's 35.90% netted him 31,334.  yes, florida was one of the few states where republican turnout exceeded democratic turnout this year.  brevard has been reliably republican in recent years, where bush got 57.65% (kerry had 41.56%) in 2004 and jeb got 61.12% in 2002.  but it isn't your father's florida anymore.

the first door i knocked, the first person i talked to yesterday was a hispanic lady.  she hadn't really thought about the upcoming election, and didn't even know if barack obama was democrat or republican.  she didn't know his name and she didn't know if obama was a republican or a democrat.  "if he's a democrat, then i'm sure i'll vote for him," she said, staring at the brochure.  i looked down on my sheet, and she was registered as a NP (no party affiliation).

the next door answered, too.  another no party woman, she was undecided and concerned about everything.  like all undecideds, i told her that she was "the most important person in america."  you'll get lots of attention, i warned her.  but the very next door was the surprise.

another NP female in her thirties, she told me that she was undecided.  i didn't take her for someone who followed politics at all, and she certainly didn't sound like she had time for it.  she was concerned about health care and energy costs.  she said they owned a small business (a restaurant out on the beach), and she thought people weren't going out to eat as much because of the cost of gasoline.  i'm recording her answers and basically agreeing with her, pretty standard faire.  then, in conclusion, she said, "hillary as his running mate would be great!"

"i hadn't heard that one before," i replied.  but you could have pretty much picked me up off the floor.  she didn't really seem engaged in politics at all.  until the end.  i told her, of course, that i had no influence on who barack picks for his running mate, but i assured her she would be proud of barack and whoever he choose as our nominees.  she smiled.

Indian River
three doors, three women and more than thirty minutes into a sunday.  i wasn't breaking any records.  at the next door, i talked to someone, but the person on my list had moved.  i looked at my voter registration forms, but they were for orange county.  opps.  so i moved on.

i walk across the street, where a young guy was working on his car.  he wasn't on my list so i went to the door.  the daughter opened the door, she was a D (democrat).  yippee!, i thought to myself.  but she was also undecided.  "it's my first election, but i haven't given it much thought."  then she yelled for her mother, "it's for you."  mom came down, explained that she was in the middle of something (as mom's are wont to do).  i'm just asking people about their preference for the presidential election, i said.  another D, she also said she was undecided.  brevard's going to be a tough nut to crack, i thought to myself.

it wasn't until the eighth door that i got a glimpse of what was to come.  a hispanic man opened the door while his wife was sitting at the computer.  "i'm for him," he said.  "me, too," came the voice from inside.  "i'm a democrat," he explained.  yeah, that's the ticket.

i go down the side street, knocking on the doors with no joy (no one answered), until i get to the (dead) end.  my last two doors on the street are side by side, 711 and 712.  i go to the one farthest (by a few feet) where there were two democrats on my list.  more 2s (yeah!) and then walk over to their neighbor.  as i'm walking over, i see the car with it's move on sticker that says, "fire the republicans!"  so i'm feeling kinda spry knocking on this door.

"not him" says the older woman who opened the door and was on my list.  "should i mark you as leaning mccain or strong mccain," i ask.  "i'm leaning," she replied.  she's a NP, as well.  i was surprised to see the moveon sticker in the first place, but i shouldn't have been surprised by her response.  it was actually what i expected before i started.

i finish knocking on doors on the first street and then drive over to the next block, which is basically a U off of courtney.  the first door on that street is registered independent (you can actually register as an independent, although it designates nothing).  she's also undecided.  when i ask what are her issues, she tells me that she really doesn't have any.  she follows her heart, she tells me.  what can i say to that?  i leave her by saying, "good luck with your decision."

the next door i knock on is a somewhat older NP female.  she's leaning mccain, she tells me, because of the abortion issue.  i had wondered when that would show up.  the baptist church on the island is huge and has a membership (it claims) of what amounts to 30% of merritt island's residents.  but she admits to being conflicted.  "i don't like his position on the war," she tells me.  she has to weigh between the two, she says.  i mark her as a 4 anyway, although she might accurately be undecided.  she's exactly the kind of voter who is impressed by a warm, smiling face willing to listen.  i tell her that the two candidates definitely have different positions about war and abortion.  without knowing more, i don't have any wise words for her.  "we can trust barack," i say, "because he trusts us."  sounds corny when it was coming out.  but she accepts the brochure and thanks me for stopping by.  she was just a very nice lady.

at the end of the next street, i finally meet a marine.  i know florida really well, having done more elections here than i can count, but this is the area where i grew up.  having knocked on 50 doors, i'd have expected to come across a military man by now.  and i did.  he's a democrat, a bit older than me, but he's leaning mccain.  i could express no surprise.  the marine regala (flags, stickers on the cars, marine vanity plates) pretty much gave it away.  

the best, of course, came last -- well, almost.  i ask for the woman of the house, because she's the one on my list.  but it's her husband who responds.  "we were just talking about this the other day," he says.  "we're going to support barack," he says.  his wife nods.  he's a republican, he tells me.  "i guess i should go down and change my registration," he says.  you don't have to, i respond.  "you're right, this is a general election.  i can still vote for obama," he observes.  "anything we can do to help, just call."

well, "we needs lots of volunteers," i say enthusiastically.  "just give us a call," he tells me.  i'm sure they will.  in the end, i only knocked on 59 doors.  i've talked to 25 people, a 42% response rate, in almost three hours.  my next packet which is a little farther north supposedly has 150 doors on it.  tomorrow, i think to myself.  i end the day with six 2s (supporting obama), two 3Ls (leaning obama, including my first door), six 3s (undecided), three 4s (leaning mccain) and two 5s (strong mccains) -- and two enthusiastic volunteers here in the heart of what should be mccain country.  a good start.  need more data to confirm the trend, but it feels like a good start.  yes we can...



Display:


"Hillary would be great!" (none / 0)

I love your diaries. You're the 'most important person in America'!


by french imp on Mon Jul 28, 2008 at 11:11:59 AM EST

Re: "Hillary as his Running Mate (none / 0)

Thanks for your work and your diaries.

And thanks for reminding us that a cost of the FL non-primary was low turnout -- something that resulted because campaigns couldn't organize and folks didn't want to vote in contests which, they were told wouldn't award delegates -- and which now means MORE work for folks in the state now.  

Both FL and MI had low turnout and in both, Obama has more work to do to get an organization up and running.  (And of course there are still some sore feelings about the contests.)


We care about politics because we know politics matters for people's lives and opportunities.
by politicsmatters on Mon Jul 28, 2008 at 11:38:02 AM EST

Re: "Hillary as his Running Mate (none / 0)

Low turn-out?  It was the 2nd biggest turn-out EVER in FL history.


He that lives upon hope, will die fasting. -Ben Franklin
by TxDem08 on Mon Jul 28, 2008 at 07:35:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: "Hillary as his Running Mate (none / 0)

FL had low turnout compared to all the other primary states. Only MI was lower.

Here's a selection from a long article on the subject. It's worth clicking through to see the spread sheet and graphs and the full analysis.

If you take a close look at the numbers, it turns out that while the Florida primary turnout was high relative to past primaries within the state, the relative Democratic turnout vs. the Republican primary lagged way behind relative party turnout in other primaries and caucuses across the country, where the voting counted from the start. And in Michigan in particular, the voting level there was simply abysmal.

Bottom line: As these numbers clearly show, if these two states had held recognized contests with turnout in line with the best-fit curve for the other states, it seems likely that many more voters would have turned out -- possibly as many as one million in Florida, and over half a million in Michigan -- and we simply can't know how those people would have voted. These simple facts render both contests, especially Michigan, seriously dubious as actual measurements of the will of each state's electorate.
http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsm emo.com/2008/05/primaries.php
 


We care about politics because we know politics matters for people's lives and opportunities.
by politicsmatters on Mon Jul 28, 2008 at 07:44:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: "Hillary as his Running Mate (none / 0)

1.67 Million DEMOCRATS showed up to vote in the Primary.  More than any other DEM Primary in their states history.

While that may have been lower than other states, looking at their state the numbers comparatively were not low by any standard.  Just by that metric alone, I simply can not find that presumption that the contest was dubious or that the will of the people of Florida was ever in question.  1.67 Million Floridians showed up to vote.  More than any other Primary election in their history, and if you combine the Republican turnout as well the entire state of Florida was within 100-150,000 +/-  voters of breaking ALL-TIME turn-out records for ANY election.


He that lives upon hope, will die fasting. -Ben Franklin
by TxDem08 on Tue Jul 29, 2008 at 12:14:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Just saying it doesn't make it so. (none / 0)

Florida didn't have the numbers comparable to other states that held primaries.  This happened despite the fact that there was at least one other big issue to bring voters out.

Obviously a lot of Dems came out to vote in FL, but it's also obvious that a great many others didn't bother because the media, the party, and the candidateS told them their votes wouldn't count.


by NeverNude on Tue Jul 29, 2008 at 06:25:16 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Just saying it doesn't make it so. (none / 0)

for sure there were probably quite a few people who did not bother to go vote.  However, to asert that because some media told them their vote wouldn't count that they did not bother to get out and vote.  FL may have had a lower turnout than other states, not many but some, however continuing to speculate that because they didn't beat turnout numbers of CA and TX that people didn't bother to get up and get out.

1.67 Million DEM voters voted.  MORE than any other DEM primary in FL history.

Just attempting to obfuscate the fact that Floridians turned out in large numbers by saying well, they didn't have large turnout compared with other states, is just ludicrious.


He that lives upon hope, will die fasting. -Ben Franklin
by TxDem08 on Tue Jul 29, 2008 at 11:59:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]

seems you can argue this both ways... (none / 0)

the fact is, it was a record turnout for democrats.  but if hillary and barack had campaigned in the state, it does seem likely that the turnout would have been higher.  what we don't know is by how much.  the graph mentioned above isn't particularly helpful because it's measuring states to each other.  what matters is how each state compares to its prior turnout history.  there were florida democrats who didn't vote in the primary because their vote for president "wouldn't count."  but republicans were wrong to think that their shenanigans would depress democratic turnout.  amendment 1 passed anyway...


"I can't change things overnight, but I think I can get us on the right track." -- Barack Obama
by bored now on Tue Jul 29, 2008 at 05:15:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: (none / 0)

I always enjoy these diaries.  There is no substitute for getting out there and talking to real people.


"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman
by Steve M on Mon Jul 28, 2008 at 11:44:00 AM EST

Re: "Hillary as (none / 0)

Great diary.

david


by giusd on Mon Jul 28, 2008 at 12:51:18 PM EST

Another Great Diary (none / 0)

I generally assume those who tell me they are undecided a for the other candidate....


by fladem on Mon Jul 28, 2008 at 01:07:38 PM EST

i don't... (2.00 / 1)

most voters -- especially those who don't vote in primaries -- don't pay sufficient attention early on, even in presidential contests.  it's one reason why i tell people who say they are undecided that "they are the most important person in america."  we want to win your vote is what i say, how can we do that?

because of how i start my "rap," people do hear me as non-confrontational:

hi, (name)?  i'm bored now and i'm a volunteer for barack obama.  you know, the general election is only 100 days from now -- oh, i guess it's less now (yes, i really say this) -- have you given any thought about who you will be voting for?

to me, what i'm doing is starting a conversation.  and it's why i take advantage of the issues ask (what issues are important to you, will influence how you vote?).  if they tell me, i can pivot with their interests to connect them to barack.

most people don't really have the energy to try to deceive people they are talking to face to face; it's just not that important to them.  that would be especially true in the area i walked yesterday, since it would probably have been a very long time since they were canvassed...


"I can't change things overnight, but I think I can get us on the right track." -- Barack Obama
by bored now on Mon Jul 28, 2008 at 01:32:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]

The vast majority (none / 0)

of my experience is phoning: I canvass much less, so I can see how there would be a difference.


by fladem on Mon Jul 28, 2008 at 02:30:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]

err... most people are busy folks (none / 0)

saying "I'm undecided" and hanging up is different from an "i'm undecided" where you KNOW that the person is going to want to talk your ear off.

Be firm with canvassers, if you want to go on with your life! ;0-) (can you tell I canvassed for money)


yo mir kennen
by RisingTide on Mon Jul 28, 2008 at 04:07:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Another Great Diary (none / 0)

I think you are generally correct. People with affinities tend to express them in those situations, while those with conflicts tend to cloak them in ambivalence.


John McCain: Country Club First!
by demwords on Mon Jul 28, 2008 at 02:32:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Great diary (none / 0)

But is your shift key broken?


by libertyleft on Mon Jul 28, 2008 at 01:42:57 PM EST

permanently... (2.00 / 3)

will shift for money...


"I can't change things overnight, but I think I can get us on the right track." -- Barack Obama
by bored now on Mon Jul 28, 2008 at 01:57:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: permanently... (none / 0)

It takes dedication to donate your keyboard replacement funds to Obama! ;-)


by CA Pol Junkie on Mon Jul 28, 2008 at 07:19:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

"Hillary would be great!" (none / 0)

The comment was also a reminder that Hillary's name recognition could help with those that aren't as plugged in to the MSM and aren't as aware of the Obama phenomenon.


It is not because I cannot explain that you won't understand. It is because you won't understand that I cannot explain. - Elie Wiesel
by Sumo Vita on Mon Jul 28, 2008 at 03:29:02 PM EST

love it. (none / 0)

and i trust your polling more so than the professional pollsters.  love the diary.


"Democracy! Bah! When I hear that I reach for my feather Boa!" Allen Ginsberg
by canadian gal on Mon Jul 28, 2008 at 03:34:46 PM EST

Re: love it. (2.00 / 1)

when i leave the state, i'll do an "observations" write-up that totals together all the numbers.  i was hoping to hit 1000 doors and talk to more than 350 people, but with the weather (afternoon thunderstorms), we'll see...


"I can't change things overnight, but I think I can get us on the right track." -- Barack Obama
by bored now on Mon Jul 28, 2008 at 03:50:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: "Hillary as his Running Mate (2.00 / 2)

this is so down to earth and I love hearing from real people. great. rec'ced


by linfar on Mon Jul 28, 2008 at 04:10:02 PM EST

Merritt Island? (none / 0)

Holy crap- I grew up there, and lived there from ages 7-21.  Amazing.


by ihaveSTILLseenenough on Mon Jul 28, 2008 at 04:12:38 PM EST

hence... (none / 0)

the stephen stills reference?


"I can't change things overnight, but I think I can get us on the right track." -- Barack Obama
by bored now on Mon Jul 28, 2008 at 06:46:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Thank goodness (none / 0)

the VP speculation will be over any day now. Everything that can be said has been said about the half dozen conventional wisdom choices on each side -- probably none of which will be the ones.


by Glaurung on Tue Jul 29, 2008 at 03:53:11 AM EST

According to NY times Hillary was never (none / 0)

considered. It was only courtesy for Hillary supporters. Obama is a very deceptive politician.


You may not agree with What I say but don't forget I am a Democrat
by indydem99 on Tue Jul 29, 2008 at 05:17:34 AM EST

i'm sure... (none / 0)

she got all the consideration she deserved.  it is, as she has said all along, his choice.  i can't imagine the absolute contempt and seeming hatred the clintons showed barack had nothing to do with it (if she's not chosen -- i have no clue who he will choose)...


"I can't change things overnight, but I think I can get us on the right track." -- Barack Obama
by bored now on Tue Jul 29, 2008 at 06:53:46 AM EST
[ Parent ]

If he does not pick her he sure is going (none / 0)

to lose. If he doe not pick her as VP he would lose many many votes and it would be back to senate for Obama!


You may not agree with What I say but don't forget I am a Democrat
by indydem99 on Tue Jul 29, 2008 at 12:32:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]

right... (none / 0)

we've been hearing about how barack can't win from you guys for years.  and yet most of us recognize the results.

hillary wouldn't help barack at all.  do you honestly think barack's going to lose new york?  or that she could put arkansas in barack's column?  your analysis is absolutely dumbfounding...


"I can't change things overnight, but I think I can get us on the right track." -- Barack Obama
by bored now on Tue Jul 29, 2008 at 05:17:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

BTW He never ran a terrific campaign! (none / 0)

He only ran a deceptive campaign shamelessly playing the race card on the Clintons. He should thank the MSM for acting as surrogates in the primaries. According to the Gallup likely voters poll he is trailing McCain.


You may not agree with What I say but don't forget I am a Democrat
by indydem99 on Tue Jul 29, 2008 at 12:36:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]

bullshit... (none / 0)

barack ran a world-class campaign that we will be studying for years (just as we studied george bush's 04 campaign).  we'll also be studying hillary's campaign as a text-book example of what not to do.  that you are unable to admit that hillary lost because barack ran a much better campaign than she did demonstrates the extent of your delusion.  i really don't think anything else need be said...


"I can't change things overnight, but I think I can get us on the right track." -- Barack Obama
by bored now on Tue Jul 29, 2008 at 05:19:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]


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