MyDD :: Quinnipiac: Obama +2 in FL and OH, +7 in PA

Quinnipiac: Obama +2 in FL and OH, +7 in PA

by LeftistAddiction, Thu Jul 31, 2008 at 08:44:48 AM EST

Quinnipiac just released its latest wave of "swing state polls" from the Big Three and it has Obama ahead in all 3.

Obama is ahead in all 3, but his margins have decreased since June - so good news for the Illinois Senator but the margins stay close. (Note that McCain gained in all four of Quinnipiac's polls last week too: MN, MI, CO and WI.)

Ohio, he leads by 2% (6% last month): 46% to 44%.
Florida, he leads by 2% (4% last month): 46% to 44%.
Pennsylvania he leads by 7% (12% last month): 49% to 42%.

Quinnipiac's release is here.
Campaign Diaries also updated its electoral college ratings last nights, with Florida's first move out of the McCain column. Check out the full ratings here.

Tags: Florida, Pennsylvania and Ohio (all tags)

Permalink :: 24 Comments :: Post a Comment

Re: Quinnipiac: Obama +2 in FL and OH, +7 in PA (2.00 / 1)

These are NOT great numbers given the landscape and the events of last week. Why?

by ottovbvs on Thu Jul 31, 2008 at 08:47:26 AM EST

Re: Quinnipiac: Obama +2 in FL and OH, +7 in PA (2.00 / 1)

Pride Unity Saves Society. Why?

Remember when Camp Clinton suggested Obama could not win these states. His poll numbers actually did stink in these states at that time. This looks like a big improvement from those days.

McCain has spent huge and is hitting Obama with his best shots right now. This is all McCain's got. Obama is rope-a-doping a little, saving his pennies for a barrage in the coming months. I'm not resting on my laurels, but I'd rather be Obama than McCain by a long shot - in a lot of ways, really, come to think of it.

I like baked beans.

by SpideyDem on Thu Jul 31, 2008 at 08:56:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]

if he lets McCain define him (none / 0)

like Bush did to kerry, all the money in the world after September won't save him. Obama's gotta start hitting McCain back. Right now, he looks like he's down on the Kerry/Gore garden path.

by Lakrosse on Thu Jul 31, 2008 at 10:57:57 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: if he lets McCain define him (2.00 / 1)

He's released quick response ads to both of McCain's big negative ads. That's a lot better than Kerry did on the swift-boating. That dog won't hunt. Obama does rapid response, including in this case.

I do worry though, about the brain-dead MSM latching on to McCain's theme a bit.

I like baked beans.

by SpideyDem on Thu Jul 31, 2008 at 11:29:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]

McCain is staggering along responding to (none / 0)

Obama.

You dog is being hunted.

Motley Moose: Progress Through Politics

by chrisblask on Thu Jul 31, 2008 at 11:39:24 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: if he lets McCain define him (none / 0)

I see your point
but the simple fact that he is using "Bush-Rove"
tactics is a strike against and I see it backfiring I don't think the public will fall for it again. I don't think he needs to stoop to their level yet.

President-elect Barack Obama spent the day thanking the people who helped him win the election. Obama's first phone call was to Sarah Palin.

by wellinformed on Thu Jul 31, 2008 at 12:46:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

negative attacks never backfire. (none / 0)

the idea of them "backfire" is a joke. You attack back at them, they don't do it themselves. Bush I's negative attacks did not backfire at him, and neither did Bush II's in either campaign. Clinton had a rapid response team, they didn't wait for attacks to "backfire."

by Lakrosse on Thu Jul 31, 2008 at 12:57:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: negative attacks never backfire. (none / 0)

I agree Clinton's "war room" was sharp
maybe it is time to fight back

President-elect Barack Obama spent the day thanking the people who helped him win the election. Obama's first phone call was to Sarah Palin.

by wellinformed on Fri Aug 01, 2008 at 12:18:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Quinnipiac: Obama +2 in FL and OH, +7 in PA (none / 0)

rope a doping
niiice

tired the old man out

Clinton campaigned her heart out and ran a better campaign then Mcbush can ever run

I would rather be in in Obama's boat too

as time goes by I am glad HRC pulled no punched with Obama she really toughen him up

President-elect Barack Obama spent the day thanking the people who helped him win the election. Obama's first phone call was to Sarah Palin.

by wellinformed on Thu Jul 31, 2008 at 12:36:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Quinnipiac: Obama +2 in FL and OH, +7 in PA (2.00 / 1)

This should be expected, face it no one is paying attention to election right now especially with the Olympics are coming up. Wait till the convention and the first debate to actually have a feel for the numbers. Chuck Todd today pretty much summed it up that McCain is devastated he is down in all three states. They were confident they had Florida and Ohio.

Patience everyone!

by hocuspocus on Thu Jul 31, 2008 at 09:14:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Quinnipiac: Obama +2 in FL and OH, +7 in PA (2.00 / 1)

McCain spent a ton of money in Ohio recently and has been talking about drilling. Obama has not been discussing the #1 issue for these voters: energy. That's why he's slipped a bit. That is already changing this week.

by elrod on Thu Jul 31, 2008 at 09:19:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Quinnipiac: Obama +2 in FL and OH, +7 in PA (2.00 / 2)

Umm let's remember he was 8 points behind in Florida only last month. Ohio, yes I'd like to see better. PA +7 is a solid number.

Ottovbus are you one of those my glass is half empty people ? :)

Faced with the choice between changing one's mind and proving that there is no need to do so, almost everyone gets busy on the proof.

by jsfox on Thu Jul 31, 2008 at 09:23:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]

These Numbers are Realistic (none / 0)

In terms of what the final margins in each state will be.

PA should go to Obama comfortably, but not overwhelmingly

FL and OH will both be close, neither candidate will win by more than a few points.

by Davidsfr on Thu Jul 31, 2008 at 08:56:11 AM EST

My guess (none / 0)

McCain will take FL. He hasn't spent a dime there. OH will be a dog fight. I think that we have a 50/50 shot at it. I like our odds in CO and VA better though, and either of those (plus IA and NM which seem like clear ones for us) get us to 273 w/o OH (presuming we hold all of our states and at this point that seems like a good assumption).

So I don't see a new political alignment. I think that it's more likely to be a typical "50+1" election. That's not to say that the Obama campaign didn't change the way campaigns are run. It did, proving that one can finance a successful campaign with a heavy grass roots fundraising effort and more emphasis on constituencies that had been under-represented in prior elections.

by activatedbybush on Thu Jul 31, 2008 at 09:16:43 AM EST

Don't forget the new Latino numbers (2.00 / 1)

in FL. Obama has made inroads into the Cuban vote - and has the growing number of Puerto Ricans in FL.

McCain has taken the Cuban vote for granted. Obama isn't giving up on it.

Anthropologists for human diversity; opposing McCain perversity

by NeciVelez on Thu Jul 31, 2008 at 11:28:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]

I hope that's right (none / 0)

But I figure that McCain will gear up advertising soon (maybe he's gonna pick Crist which is why no advertising yet). And when he does I think he surges past Obama. But, we don't need Florida. Don't even need OH as long as we can steal CO or VA.

by activatedbybush on Thu Jul 31, 2008 at 04:04:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Quinnipiac: (2.00 / 1)

I live in Northeast Ohio. This place is getting fucking inundated with McCain ads (real ones, not RNC or 527's). They're on constantly. If Obama is still up at all after this onslaught then I'm happy.

by Reaper0Bot0 on Thu Jul 31, 2008 at 09:25:30 AM EST

Re: Quinnipiac: Obama +2 in FL and OH, +7 in PA (2.00 / 2)

McCain has wasted a ton of money to be behind in three of the most valuable states. Congratulations, dumbass.

by rfahey22 on Thu Jul 31, 2008 at 10:28:00 AM EST

Re: Quinnipiac: Obama +2 in FL and OH, +7 in PA (none / 0)

Umm...

McCain gained 2 points in FL, 4 points in Ohio and 5 points in Pennsylvania during Obama's best week of news coverage ever, and that's good news for Obama?

by rayj on Thu Jul 31, 2008 at 12:15:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Quinnipiac: Obama +2 (none / 0)

Quite possibly.

Even Barack Obama said he might lose a few points in the polls due to the trip. A lot of Americans don't really like Europe.

The payoff may not be immediate. All he's got to do is improve how Americans see him on national security and foreign policy. The trip did that, I think.

by Reaper0Bot0 on Thu Jul 31, 2008 at 12:31:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Quinnipiac: Obama +2 in FL and OH, +7 in PA (none / 0)

Sure. I think that last month's Q-polls were possibly outliers, anyway - 6 points in Ohio was a bit much, as was the margin in Florida. Taken together, the polls show that Obama has a narrow lead in OH and FL (despite having no organization there a few months ago). I'd much rather be in his position than McCain's position right now.

by rfahey22 on Thu Jul 31, 2008 at 12:46:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Quinnipiac: Obama +2 in FL and OH, +7 in PA (none / 0)

well you know McCain he " knows how to win wars"

so trust me he will win this just like he won all the other wars we fought .......
wait a minute ??? he did not plan D-day ?

President-elect Barack Obama spent the day thanking the people who helped him win the election. Obama's first phone call was to Sarah Palin.

by wellinformed on Thu Jul 31, 2008 at 12:42:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Quinnipiac: Obama +2 in FL and OH, +7 in PA (none / 0)

Umm, a month ago, Florida was officially out of reach for Obama. Three months ago, Ohio was lost. Four months ago, Obama was going to lose Pennsylvania.
McCain is pursuing the Clinton 'last-resort, kitchen sink' strategy, only he's doing it in JULY. It's possible that these poll results are the BEST he can hope for, barring a meltdown by the Obama campaign.
The arc of this election plays out over months, not days. And the overall arc looks VERY good for Obama.

by EvilAsh on Thu Jul 31, 2008 at 10:47:06 AM EST

Re:these are great numbers (2.00 / 1)

for obama.

He is at a disadvantage this whole election season because, he is going to win with

"unlikely" voters.

People who don't care about politics 365 days a year.

they care for about 1 day a year, maybe a week or 2 at the most.

So there is no point in him doing big rallies and the like to get these people fired up.

He only needs them fired up for 1 day in november.

So Obama's numbers will be deflated until the last 2 weeks.

So anytime Obama is leading, add at least 5 points and that is where the race really is.

Unless something really big (bad) happens.
Obama will sweep himself and many, many democrats.

On balance, this is good for America.

by yellowdem1129 on Thu Jul 31, 2008 at 11:24:36 AM EST

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