Barack Obama and the American Dream

Not only is it Zogby, who has lost nearly all credibility, but it's among "likely" voters.  How do you determine likely voters in a year with the highest voter registration rate in decades?

While this isn't great news, Zogby is not the most reliable pollster out there. This is the only poll that has Obama behind.

I also think McCain is getting a bounce from Saddleback with the Republican base. This could evaporate quickly if he picks a pro-choice running mate. Also possibly getting a bounce from Russia Georgia conflict.

Finally I really never believed that that McCain wouldn't poll ahead of Obama several times during the campaign.

A couple months ago I did not think McCain would be this effective against Obama.  I was wrong.

no problem.  Okay.

We'll see.  I think my suggestions are good.  But if you all just can ignore the polls and say we're doing great, then we are.

Yeah, it is probably a bad poll. Still, I recognize Obama's numbers are going down. But in recent history, having low numbers at this point in time is a good thing. I think Team Obama wanted/expected his numbers to decrease. He took a week off, after all. I don't think the "Celebrity" ad will do permanent damage. I think these ads just create confusion but aren't really getting to the heart of any character flaw. In the latest LA Times Poll, McCain had lower favorable than Obama. I think Team Obama has let McCain run a little loose to figure out their strategy.

McCain still has not developed a clear vision for where he wants to take the U.S. At Saddleback, he sounded like Bush on crack. I don't think that is going to play with overall electorate. Still, Obama should be talking about how much McCain sounds like Bush more. They have kind of dropped that line of attack. I am hoping that once McCain does better in the polls he will get more media scrutiny. There have been recent negative articles about Cindy, etc.

Obama has a ton of footage waiting in the wings. McCain saying he needed to be educated on the economy, Lieberman correcting McCain at the press conference, Phil Gramm, etc. The DNC should be out there with tv ads, not just web ads, using all this stuff. I am less confident about their strategy. They should be doing harder hitting ads.

Obama's support among Democrats went down by 9 according to this poll.  LINK That is the difference.  If we lose in November because Democrats don't vote for the Democratic nominee then we deserve to lose.  

McCain is within 12 points of Obama in the under 30 demographic as this does. Just saying, that's blatantly absurd and I would bet any amount of money on that over!!!

Democrats and hard hitting ads? Those two things don't belong in the same sentence. I'm a Democrat and I plan on voting for Obama but he has got to step up his game and sharpen his attacks. Obama is slipping in the polls and not just the polls conducted by Zogby. Those trends don't bode well and it's obvious McCain's attacks are working. Haven't we learned our lesson from Dukakis, Gore, and Kerry? I really hope Obama's advisers know what they're doing against Rove's friends.

i thought zogby was in the tank for obama

Come on. Although the race has clearly tightened, a 12 point swing in favor of McCain probably means that Zogby fiddled his numbers.

3 points without leaners, 1 point with, and this is also a large likely voter sample.

Neither poll is perfect but Ras is more current.

The timing of this good news for the McCain camp means McCain may not throw a "hail mary" and select Joementum as VP.   He may go with a safer choice now that would be more acceptable to the righwing.  

I think if McCain picks Lieberman the Republican party will shatter.  

There's still time to win Democrats.  Nominate HIllary at the Convention.  The Clintons will cream McCain and lead us to victory.  Obama can't win.  He probably has another vacation planned in October.

VP will help.  I believe it will bring Obama out of the red and back into the blue.

Hillary!

Obviously, for you see there are only too good approaches:

1. Have a big lead in the polls and chose whoever he likes
   
2. Being not so good in the polls and pick Hillary.

That's how politic works, anything outside of those 2 options will look plain bad. Not chosing hillary when you have mediocre polls (with a bad trend aparently) will look weak and petty.

Just as choosing Clinton if he was strong would make him look weak too.

Well, I feel like voting for Obama 12% more than I did yesterday. And I know lots of people who feel exactly the same way. I think that McCain needs to worry, because polls like this take all the air out of the "Obama thinks he's Jesus but we know he's the Anti-Christ because the Liberals like him and worship him and everything like that..." crowd.

Please sir, may I have more bad polling!!

I wonder just how badly the Republicans have to fuck up the economy before people stop believing that a different Republican with the same policies is the answer.

McCain's tax cuts for the rich, tax breaks for big oil, privatize social security, lax regulation BS is exactly what got us in this mess and 49% think McCain is the man to handle the economy! Despite him saying he knows nothing about the economy. Despite his top economic adviser saying we're all imagining the problem. Despite McCain's definition of rich being $5m a year.

Obama needs to hit McCain back hard, very very hard on the economy. Americans need to know exactly where he stands, and it definitely isn't with them. If the Democrats don't own the economy issue, we will lose in November.

I have stopped any poll/navel gazing, screw the pundits/screw the polls.

But, I think this is the second time I have seen McCain polling better on the Economy then Obama?

WTF?  Is it Drill Drill Drill or the negative ads or?

I am a strong Obama supporter, but he and the VP pick (and this tends to make we want Hillary even more) better go on the 24/7 Economy tour in battle ground states.

Yes, I think the demographic that showed McCain close on the younger break-out shows something is strange with this poll...

But, I don't care WHAT.

If McCain polls better on economic issues, we are really blowing it.

I do hope this poll will wake people up, and force the conversation about the #2 spot to get serious. Let's loose the names like Sebelius, Feigold, Hagel, and Biden. And Obama needs to stop reacting every time there's a foreign policy flare-up somewhere.

This economy and the liquidity crisis are still far worse than anyone is willing to admit. Yet Russia invades Georgia, and people start wailing about how we just have to get someone on the ticket with foreign policy expertise. If Obama caves in to that sentiment by picking Biden, I will truly lose all hope....at that point, you'll have three of the top 4 spots settled (Obama, McCain, Biden....), and not one with any significant knowledge of the  financial sector or economics---in the worst economy since the late '70's (possibly since the Great Depression). McCain actually made it a bragging point that he knows nothing about the economy. That's when people like me scratch our heads and say that the system truly is not working.

Maybe come October, all four major party nominees (Pres and VP) can sit down and have a marathon, two-day foreign policy discussion.....all while Fannie, Freddie, and a score of regional banks go down the tubes.

Dince all you guys love McCain so much, or think he's so unbeatable, why don't you vote for him?

Caused by Vladimir Putin doing his Joseph Stalin impression?  The Rasmussen Poll still has Obama ahead, but within the MOE.  People may just be catching their breath before the General Campaign.

And for those who want Hillary as VP, well maybe Bill should have spent less time dissing him and more time SHUTTING THE HELL UP.  He may have personally destroyed any chance for her on the ticket.  Obama would definitly look weak if he picked her now.  What candidate would pick someone whose spouse could not even bring himself to say the candidate was qualified to be president?

Obama/Sibelius 08!

The 'economy' is all about energy, where Obama and Democrats in general have been owned.

So many bloggers here, myself included, were attacked up oneside and down the other for pointing to polls that indicated that the race was tightening.  "Get over it, dead-ender!"  "The primaries are over!"  "Bitter much!"  "You want him to lose!"  "Go back to NoQuarter!"

My assurances that I was supporting Obama were ignored as certain people here insisted I was cherry-picking bad news to report.

And now we have this:

Either:
(a) RCP is a bitter pro-Clinton organization, OR
(b) some of you need to take off the rose-colored glasses, stop attacking the bearers of bad news, and realize that this is not going to be a cakewalk.